Economic Trends and How They Affect Your Kitchen in 2023
As a food service professional, staying up to date with economic trends is essential for managing your kitchen. In 2023, several factors are impacting food prices and availability. Here’s what you need to know:
Electricity and Transportation Prices
According to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), electricity prices for industry and agriculture customers are expected to increase by 92% in 2023. This increase is due to the high demand for energy as the economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the shutdown of nuclear reactors and tensions around the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Similarly, transportation costs are expected to rise, with the cost of operating a truck predicted to increase by 8.8% in 2023 due to higher energy costs, personnel costs, and vehicle prices.
Pork, Vegetables, Poultry and Fish Prices
Pork: The market for pork is expected to remain tight in terms of both price and availability throughout the year due to factors such as African Swine Fever (ASF) and piglet fever, declining profitability resulting from rising input costs, and aging farmers. The price of pork has increased by almost 20% since the beginning of the year and 75% since 2022.
Vegetables: Frozen and canned vegetables have become more expensive due to lower yields and increased production costs resulting from unfavorable weather conditions. Carrots have increased by 36% in a year, and the price of potatoes is expected to rise by about 30% in July. Onions have doubled in price in a year and may be in short supply. Products based on peppers, such as vegetable stir-fries and vegetable trios, may also be in short supply.
Poultry: Frozen poultry has become more expensive due to the influenza avian virus, which has significantly impacted poultry production in France in 2022. This has resulted in a high risk of shortage of standard chicken, turkey, duck, and guinea fowl. The impact of influenza avian virus on imported volumes from Poland is expected to affect the European market in the coming weeks.
Fish: Frozen fish experienced a price increase due to overconsumption at the end of 2022, causing shortages. However, the market is expected to stabilize with declining consumption until the end of the first semester in 2023.
Mustard, Olives, and Patisserie Prices
Mustard: Mustard prices increased between 15% and 30% from January to April 2023 due to rising costs of raw materials, energy, and packaging. However, the new 2023 mustard seed harvest is better, and producers received bonuses to cultivate more mustard seeds. There is an improvement in the risk of shortage, and the price is expected to remain stable in 2023.
Olives: Olives are facing a significant risk of shortage due to a poor harvest in Spain and Morocco, mainly due to a lack of water, resulting in a 50% drop in the production of Greek-style black olives. The high costs of energy, transportation, and packaging have further compounded the problem. Prices have increased significantly, with the risk period expected to last until March 30, 2024.
Patisserie: Patisserie and biscuit prices have increased by 10-25% due to rising agricultural raw material costs, energy, transportation, labor, and packaging material costs. However, the prices are expected to stabilize by the end of the first half of 2023.
Sugar: Sugar prices have seen a significant increase due to weather events affecting crops, rising energy costs, and increased demand from the food and beverage industry. The risk of shortage is high.
In 2023, food service professionals need to be aware of the economic trends in 2023 and the challenges they pose to the food market. Understanding these trends and their impact on ingredient availability and cost can help make informed decisions when creating menus, purchasing ingredients, and managing budgets.